The Cowboy Scoreboard

Predictions

Every call the cowboys have made on air, newest first — scored as the market plays out.

✅ 1 called❌ 1 missed⏳ 71 on the clock

Verdicts marked “archive-graded” were scored automatically against later episodes of the show itself — each one links its receipts. Everything else stays on the clock until the archive settles it.

1. 2026-08-14⏳ On the clock

   Oliver Bracado predicts that human-plus-AI hybrid enforcement services like Bustm will shift almost entirely to machine-driven delivery within about two years.

   we're going to blink in two years and it's going to be all machine, right?

2. 2026-08-07⏳ On the clock

   Ford's new low-cost EV truck is likely to fail because it's unclear who the product is actually for, echoing the doomed Jaguar rebrand.

   I think it will fail, and I hope it doesn't... but I think this is kind of doomed from the start, and it's giving me remnants and feelings of the Jaguar rebrand

3. 2026-07-31⏳ On the clock

   Golden Child is positioned for a strategic acquisition, potentially by a retailer like PetSmart or Petco, following a path similar to Gruns.

   I could not be more bullish on this company and category... you could easily have a Gruns exit to someone like a PetSmart or a Petco

4. 2026-07-24⏳ On the clock

   AI's potential downside carries a blast radius so much larger than past disruptive technologies (cars, elevators) that society will eventually be forced into a global regulatory response after something goes badly wrong.

   Something very very insane is going to happen and then people are going to be like, we have to go full Geneva on this... This is like a nuclear atomic thing that we're building where the blast radius is so much larger than we can conceive

5. 2026-07-24⏳ On the clock

   TV advertising has become dramatically cheaper (up to 10x) with better targeting, making it one of the most attractive channels for DTC brands going into 2026.

   TV advertising has quite literally become in some cases for some of my friends um and their brands has quite literally become 10 times cheaper

6. 2026-07-21⏳ On the clock

   Live selling on Shopify already performs well and will gradually become an adopted norm across the industry, though it will take more time to reach broad adoption.

   there's a thing with Shopify. It works well. Numbers are super compelling... it's going to probably take a bit more time... to be something that everybody will adopt down the road

7. 2026-07-17⏳ On the clock

   Ad costs today are cheap relative to where they're headed, echoing Gary Vee's early conviction on Facebook ads, so brands should spend aggressively now before costs rise like real estate.

   He's telling us all, 'You think they're expensive now, guys? This is like buying real estate in Malibu.' Things are going to get expensive. They're not expensive now. Spend as much as

8. 2026-07-16⏳ On the clock

   Within about six months, AI will overcome long-form video editing, currently the last major bottleneck to fully agentic content production.

   next six months I think we're going to be in a place that... There are solutions that are coming and I think they're like really close.

9. 2026-07-14⏳ On the clock

   Colin predicts connected TV will make a comeback as an ad channel because it functions as a trackable household device, improving CAC visibility.

   your literal house is the connected device... I'm pretty bullish on products like this... I think TV's TV is gonna make a comeback.

10. 2026-07-11⏳ On the clock

    Cheap, undiscovered ad inventory on LLM/chat platforms like ChatGPT won't last because ad budgets will find and bid up any cheap clicks almost immediately.

    I don't think we're going to get all of a sudden cheap clicks because the budgets are going to find it quick enough that there's not going to be, hey, we're going to find 5-cent clicks on chat GBT

11. 2026-07-10⏳ On the clock

    Tecovas' expansion into Bass Pro Shop and Cabela's will cement it as America's default western-wear brand and the company will keep winning through 2026-2027.

    This will solidify them as the default choice for American western wear... They will continue to win through and through 2026, 2027. They are a phenomenally run brand.

12. 2026-07-02⏳ On the clock

    As AI chat assistants erode Google search traffic, Google will push harder into YouTube advertising, making GEO investment and YouTube ad spend the smarter channel bet going forward.

    GEO investment is probably one of the best path forward... making it bullish for YouTube advertising because I feel like Google, as a response to all of this, will probably push a lot more of the chips in on YouTube ads

13. 2026-06-24⏳ On the clock

    Conversational AI agents that let founders talk to their business data for forecasting and competitive insight will become the standard way operators run ecommerce businesses.

    I just talk to the thing and it talks back to me like, "Hey, how are we progressing like toward forecast?"... That's the future

14. 2026-06-23⏳ On the clock

    Cat Cole's leadership trajectory (Hooters to Cinnabon CEO) is impressive enough that the hosts predict she could end up in a role as prominent as the White House.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Cat somehow ended up in the White House.

15. 2026-06-23⏳ On the clock

    Pat McAfee's investment in Jams is a major validation event for the CPG/DTC space that will draw more traditional and smaller capital into the industry.

    This is a huge home run for the industry. This is going to be a huge home run for Pat with his distribution.

16. 2026-06-20⏳ On the clock

    Flushable wipes remain a massively underpenetrated category, with most consumers never having tried it, giving the category room to eventually rival toilet paper.

    60% haven't even tried a flushable wipe yet. We think we can replace toilet paper.

17. 2026-06-18⏳ On the clock

    AR glasses hardware like Snap Spectacles is only a year or two away from looking as good as real designer eyewear.

    Maybe like a year or two away of like, cool, you look awesome with like legit Tom Ford glasses

18. 2026-06-17⏳ On the clock

    There is a strong (about two-thirds) chance the AI product 'Fable' returns to consumers by June 22nd, despite the setback being caused by personality conflicts rather than technical issues.

    There's a uh 66% chance by June 22nd Fable's coming back to consumers.

19. 2026-06-13⏳ On the clock

    Podcasting will keep shifting from pure entertainment toward content listeners can apply to make their lives healthier and more meaningful.

    you'll continue to see a shift from entertainment podcast to how can I apply what I'm hearing to my life to make my life a more you know meaningful

20. 2026-06-12⏳ On the clock

    LMNT's lawsuit against Oasis over misreported ingredient/metric data will trigger more legal action from other consumer brands as the industry polices bad actors.

    I'm shocked that most of them didn't come together as a class action... it is interesting that it's just Element, but I wouldn't be surprised if more are going to follow suit.

21. 2026-06-10⏳ On the clock

    AI advances from platforms like Shopify and Claude are making the one-person brand increasingly feasible and will become the dominant model.

    the one-man brand just got that much more achievable... I do believe this is the future. Small teams, big dreams, and AI-ifying our ways to it.

22. 2026-06-06⏳ On the clock

    IM8 will achieve a massive Gruns-style acquisition exit within the next year.

    I mean, extremely bullish. They're going to have a Gruns exit within a year.

23. 2026-06-05⏳ On the clock

    The rage-bait 'yapper' content format is running out of road because the quality of takes has gotten so bad that it may need a correction, even though it's still fun for now.

    we might need to like potentially figure something out here cuz people can't just keep having these kind of takes... I'm ready for the next format

24. 2026-06-02⏳ On the clock

    Quince's expansion into furniture, priced below West Elm but with comparable design quality, is positioned to be a major success.

    I can't imagine this is just not going to be a smashing home run... Yeah, it's very West Elmesque... Without West Elm prices

25. 2026-05-22⏳ On the clock

    As acquisition costs keep climbing, only the highest-LTV companies will be able to afford to dominate a channel, which will shrink variety in e-commerce over the next 5-10 years.

    the companies with the highest LTV will just pay the most for acquisition and they will just dominate the channel

26. 2026-05-21⏳ On the clock

    A next-generation GLP-1 drug (retatrutide, in phase-three trials) will be the one that truly transforms the weight-loss/GLP-1 economy.

    There's one in clinical trials right now from Eli Lilly. It's in phase three right now. It's called retatrutide... This thing is going to This is going to change

27. 2026-05-20⏳ On the clock

    Colin predicts US affordability pressure will force white-collar Americans to weigh retiring abroad within the next 5 to 10 years.

    there is a crunch of like the white-collar American. And there's going to be some decisions that are going to have to be made over the next 5 to 10 years of like is the United States the place where you're going to retire because of affordability

28. 2026-05-19⏳ On the clock

    Humanoid robots will take over warehouse/3PL tasks but will still require significant human oversight for maintenance and edge cases.

    Probably still need a significant amount of humans in the loop, humans around to step in and be available to get blisters if they need to.

29. 2026-05-16⏳ On the clock

    Marketers skilled in creator/clipping strategies will increasingly find outsized opportunities working for non-traditional clients like politicians.

    there's a lot of opportunity for talent to go to these other spaces and like yield outside results ... I think we're going to see that especially with some of these younger guys

30. 2026-05-13⏳ On the clock

    AI-generated UGC ads are inherently untrustworthy, so brands betting on real human creators will outperform those relying on AI-generated content long-term.

    I can't think of anything less trustworthy than an AI UGC ad. It's literally a fake story from a fake not even real thing... people are going to continue to buy from people in the future.

31. 2026-05-13⏳ On the clock

    Amazon's continued expansion will eventually push most ecommerce sellers into being third-party sellers on its platform.

    One has to wonder if we will all simply be third party sellers on Amazon at some point... If it's anybody, it is Amazon.

32. 2026-05-09⏳ On the clock

    Betting against technological progress has always been wrong historically, and AI-driven labor disruption will end up net positive for the people it displaces, just as past shifts like the decline of farming did.

    if you had bet against humanity and it bet had had had bet against technological progress at any point, you would have been wrong... every time there's been a disruption, it's been net positive for the people being disrupted.

33. 2026-05-01⏳ On the clock

    X (Twitter) is poised to become the next major breakout advertising channel, following TikTok Shop and Whatnot.

    2025 early 2026 is Whatnot... the next one that's coming is X baby. It's coming. I believe it.

34. 2026-04-29⏳ On the clock

    AI-generated video ads will close the performance gap with real creators within about four or five months as mass adaptation takes hold.

    give it four or five months let's see what the AI education space looks like at that point... we'll see more more people killing it with AI ads for sure

35. 2026-04-28⏳ On the clock

    AI is going to make cold outbound sales significantly harder for agencies going forward.

    I think that cold outbound is going to get a lot harder.

36. 2026-04-28⏳ On the clock

    TikTok Shop's early-mover subsidies will disproportionately benefit scrappier 7-8 figure brands rather than established 9-10 figure brands.

    It's probably not going to be like the nine, ten figure brands. It's probably going to be like the scrapier seven, eight figure brands.

37. 2026-04-18⏳ On the clock

    TikTok Shop's live/creator commerce engine will surpass Amazon very quickly.

    this engine I think will surpass Amazon very quickly

38. 2026-04-16⏳ On the clock

    Allbirds rebranding as an AI/GPU-compute company (Newbird AI) after selling its footwear assets is a nonsensical pivot, and the resulting stock spike is speculative mania investors will regret not selling into.

    pivot its business model toward AI compute infrastructure... If the market crashes and you didn't sell your stocks you will look back at this exact moment.

39. 2026-04-15⏳ On the clock

    AI agents like the Claude SDK will soon remove the need for dedicated developer hours to run A/B and offer tests, lowering the skill barrier to testing tools.

    What if you didn't need ten developer hours? What if it was just the Claude SDK running in the background?

40. 2026-04-11⏳ On the clock

    OpenAI's ad business needs to succeed and pull in massive advertiser spend or the company can't stay solvent long-term.

    they need this thing to take off and work... they need us to all be funneling our ad dollars in there for this thing to become profitable at some point

41. 2026-04-10✅ Called itarchive-graded

    Live shopping and social commerce will keep growing rapidly in the US as Amazon and eBay push harder into the format, following China's lead.

    eBay reported record Q2 results and expanded live-selling push (TechCrunch story), with eBay's own data showing regular live streamers grow GMV and sell 3x more, confirming the predicted growth trend even though Amazon-specific news isn't in evidence.

    Receipts: ▶ 2026-08-08 24:55 · ▶ 2026-08-08 23:50

    Amazon's pushing hard at live. eBay's pushing hard at live... live's going to continue to grow

42. 2026-04-10⏳ On the clock

    The next big supplement form factor to scale a brand like Grüns will be lollipops or a similarly delicious new delivery format.

    it could be lollipops or it could be some other delectable, delightful form

43. 2026-04-09⏳ On the clock

    Brands that avoided building a TikTok Shop muscle will try to replicate their old Facebook-ads playbook on Instagram's new shop and mostly fail unless they learn creator-partnership dynamics.

    They're going to try to run the same Facebook ads playbook that we were all doing since like 2014 or 2015... you do not understand the new world of creator partnerships and social commerce.

44. 2026-04-07⏳ On the clock

    Pet telehealth is emerging as the next major category, poised for the kind of subscription/GLP-1-style growth and investor interest that made human telehealth huge.

    I think that there is a strong case to be made here that pet telehealth is the new op to go up into the right and get yourself some bees behind your revenue numbers.

45. 2026-04-07⏳ On the clock

    Justin Silver's charity boxing event is a differentiated experiential activation the ecommerce conference circuit lacks, and it's set to scale dramatically next year.

    Next year, we're looking at venues that can host 1,500 to 2,000 e-commerce professionals... looking to crack that million dollars raised.

46. 2026-04-07⏳ On the clock

    Shopify's stock performance versus BigCommerce shows the market has already decided Shopify has won, with no competitor able to catch up.

    I'm not sure that anybody can catch up with Shopify.

47. 2026-04-02⏳ On the clock

    Google's new AI inbox summarization product is unlikely to wipe out email marketing as a viable channel despite fears it will.

    RIP to the top organic channels, search and email... is this going to basically liquidate, take email marketing totally off of the table... I don't think that's the case

48. 2026-03-31⏳ On the clock

    TikTok's rollout of a dedicated short-drama feed is worth betting on now because platform-backed content formats tend to get algorithmically rewarded, so brands should start testing it early.

    I think brands need to uh need to go with this. Spin up a spin up an alternate account and why not start testing it now? I mean TikTok is betting heavily on this.

49. 2026-03-27⏳ On the clock

    The wave of Meta-related harm lawsuits echoes the big-tobacco precedent and could eventually force real limits on how ad platforms are allowed to advertise if it plays out over several years.

    this precedent I mean, this was set with the big tobacco... there is a reason why... they have been limited and they cannot advertise in certain ways

50. 2026-03-26⏳ On the clock

    Stripe powering Meta's checkout is early signaling that Stripe could take commerce infrastructure everywhere and reduce brands' dependence on Shopify as the distribution layer, with brands that sell inside AI services and ad units via ACP gaining a structural advantage in 12-18 months.

    Medium-term, 12 to 18 months, brands that figure out how to sell inside AI services and ad units via ACP will have a structural advantage.

51. 2026-03-25⏳ On the clock

    AI agents will let brands consolidate creative, media buying, email, dev, and CX roles into a single operator, eliminating the need for separate hires.

    all brands are just going to need one Will... there is nobody else

52. 2026-03-24⏳ On the clock

    Google, Meta, and Amazon combined will out-earn all of traditional media ad spend by 2028, undercutting the idea that social/platform advertising is a lesser channel.

    Google, Meta, Amazon each bring in more ad revenue than all of traditional media ad spending combined combined by 2028.

53. 2026-03-20⏳ On the clock

    Google's Stitch launch is a deliberately small teaser meant to harvest usage data toward a much bigger end-to-end design/landing-page product, not a finished tool.

    We're going to use all that data you're giving us to bake a cake. A big old cake and you're going to love it.

54. 2026-03-12⏳ On the clock

    AI adoption may mean the company never needs to hire another go-to-market employee again.

    he said we may not hire anybody again for go-to-market

55. 2026-03-10⏳ On the clock

    Getting comfortable with unrestricted tools like Open Claw now will prepare people for the more guardrailed, employee-like AI agents that are coming next.

    if you get comfortable with Open Claw, then you'll be very comfortable at the agents that are coming and that that are being built right now. And that's how you set yourself up for the future

56. 2026-03-07⏳ On the clock

    SaaS pricing for marketing measurement tools is heading toward zero, so value has to be delivered rather than charged for at the old software-license rates.

    I really believe that SAS is going to zero at some point right or or as as close to as possible to zero and so what we want to do is bring a ton of value

57. 2026-02-24⏳ On the clock

    AI in customer service will improve and companies will adopt it where it drives incremental revenue.

    We just showcased the main AI bots that are driving really incremental cash revenue. It's only going to get better over time.

58. 2026-02-24⏳ On the clock

    AI agents operating continuously will eventually surpass human marketers who don't master AI, even if the AI is only 85% as capable.

    If 85% works 24 hours a day, they will eventually overtake you. One must become a maestro of the machines very quickly.

59. 2026-02-20⏳ On the clock

    Chubbies' expansion into women's swimwear represents a natural category extension that will be highly successful.

    I think it's a natural next step and I think it's going to be an absolute slam home run.

60. 2026-02-17⏳ On the clock

    In 2026, brands will increasingly use their own employees as micro-influencers for marketing

    In 2026, we are going to start seeing the rise of brands using their employees as micro influencers

61. 2026-02-14⏳ On the clock

    A generational shift will drive massive migration from legacy platforms to Shopify within 5-8 years as younger executives gain control.

    There's going to be a massive shift in the next like five to eight years when a decent amount of the boomer execs... retire and then the younger bucks within the org are saying, Can we move over to Shopify?

62. 2026-02-14⏳ On the clock

    If Amazon achieves economic viability with 60-minute grocery delivery, they will solidify their position as the convenience layer of modern life.

    if they can make this economically viable and broaden the footprint they already have... what they will do is further strengthen themselves as the convenience layer in all of modern life

63. 2026-02-10⏳ On the clock

    High-investment experiential brand activations create lasting memories that drive outsized business returns.

    what it's going to yield is memories made. It's going to create an iconic moment where people fall in love with your brand with Chomps and then they want to take Chomps with them on the rest of their adventures.

64. 2026-02-10⏳ On the clock

    If Amazon successfully scales their Super Center retail concept, they could dominate consumer retail and eclipse Walmart.

    if Amazon can prove a retail concept that works, it makes me wonder if we're going to be living in the future of Wall-E where everyone and everything. Bezos, he's he's coming for everybody.

65. 2026-02-05⏳ On the clock

    Artisanal, slow food production will eventually overtake convenience-based processed food despite requiring more time and preparation effort.

    it's slower but it's it's the slow and steady thing I think it's it's it's going to take over

66. 2026-01-29⏳ On the clock

    SYRN will create significant new job openings in e-commerce within the next few weeks.

    Probably in the next coming one to two, maybe three weeks, there's going to be 15 to 20 brand new roles opened up at this company for people in e-commerce.

67. 2026-01-20⏳ On the clock

    OpenAI's ad platform will have a brief window of underpriced inventory before competition normalizes pricing

    you're going to have maybe like a month window where you can just go absolutely crazy and find some dispriced value

68. 2026-01-20⏳ On the clock

    OpenAI capturing 20-30% of Google and Meta's ad spend would force prices down, benefiting all advertisers

    If Open AI just gobbles up maybe a 20, 30% market share away from your average spend on Google and Meta, everybody wins because then everybody has to lower the prices for auction

69. 2026-01-17⏳ On the clock

    LLM platforms and advertisers will inevitably gain access to enriched consumer conversation data, creating unprecedented targeting opportunities.

    I do think that the the advertisers and Meta and everyone else is going to get this data.

70. 2026-01-16⏳ On the clock

    Non-strategic workers must upskill with AI tools immediately or will face replacement by cheaper AI agents and automation

    Most of us need to take this moment very seriously and upskill everything that we can do with all of the AI that can be availed to us. Because if we live in the realm of I just do things told, then it's going to be much cheaper to do that with a robot with an AI agent very soon

71. 2026-01-15⏳ On the clock

    AI will automate approximately 70% of ad buying work, freeing professionals to focus deeply on creative strategy where they excel

    Artificial intelligence is going to take up 70% of our job and help us just become a lot deeper and focused in areas that we want to be

72. 2026-01-10⏳ On the clock

    AI automation will free marketers from tedious ads platform work, enabling focus on customer trust-building and business strategy.

    if there's a lot we can glean, use, utilize from AI, save ourselves the time from continually looking at the ads manager, it's going to free up human capital to put our energy into things that are going to actually win trust with our customers

73. 2026-01-06❌ Missedarchive-graded

    The AI capability race is over; future competition will center on brand differentiation and marketing execution rather than raw model performance.

    Hosts later describe AI competition explicitly as an ongoing 'arms race' between fiercely competing labs with massive funding, and separately frame differentiation in terms of token/cost economics rather than brand and marketing, contradicting the claim that the capability race was over.

    Receipts: ▶ 2026-06-27 23:50 · ▶ 2026-07-18 20:35

    the race is kind of done. So now you're just talking about brand differentiation... Google's AI is fantastic, but their marketing team's a little bit of sleep at the wheel.